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As Punjab watches AAP stumble, the BJP’s revival will depend less on its rival’s failures and more on its own willingness to rewrite a narrative that Punjab’s voters have long rejected. For now, the odds remain steep
The ongoing unrest offers the BJP an opportunity to leverage the socio-political situation and recover lost ground in a state where it has been virtually wiped off. (Image: PTI)
Punjab’s political landscape has always been a complex tapestry, woven with agrarian discontent, regional identity, and shifting party loyalties. As of March 21, 2025, the state stands at yet another crossroads. The Aam Aadmi Party-led government’s recent crackdown on farmers’ protests has created a potential—though narrow—window for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to stage a revival. However, the BJP’s path to resurgence in this farmer-dominated state remains fraught with challenges, rooted in its own historical baggage and the current dynamics of Punjab’s polity.
The AAP government, led by Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, is facing mounting criticism over its handling of the latest farmers’ agitation, driven by long-standing demands such as a legal guarantee for Minimum Support Price (MSP) and farm debt waivers. The recent detention of farmer leaders and the blockade of their march to Chandigarh have sparked sharp rebukes—not just from farmer unions but also from Opposition figures like Congress’s Ashok Gehlot and even ideological rivals within Punjab. The sight of police barricades and burning effigies of Mann has painted a picture of a government struggling to balance its populist promises with the practicalities of governance—a misstep that could erode its credibility among Punjab’s rural electorate that propelled it to power in 2022.
OPPORTUNITY TO EXPLOIT?
The ongoing unrest offers the BJP an opportunity to leverage the socio-political situation and recover lost ground in a state where it has been virtually wiped off. But while it was assumed that visuals of a police officer slapping a woman protester or a JCB removing farmers’ tents at the Shambhu border would turn public sentiment against Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, the reality is not as similar.
Of course, there is anger within the agrarian community, and a sizeable portion of society sympathises with them. However, the year-long protests blocking roads at the Shambhu and Khanauri borders gradually lost support from a significant segment of Punjabi civil society. Furthermore, the agitation has frustrated Punjabi traders who rely on free movement for business.
With the Ludhiana West by-poll approaching, and given the industrial hub’s importance to traders, the AAP’s decision is likely to be well-received by this group. For this reason, the BJP’s ability to fully capitalise on the situation is limited, as it risks alienating non-agrarian Punjabis.
BJP’s OWN BAGGAGE
However, for the BJP, this unrest presents a certain degree of opportunity to capitalise on the AAP’s vulnerabilities. The party has been on the back foot in Punjab since the 2020-21 farmers’ protests, which saw its leaders vilified and its electoral prospects decimated due to the controversial farm laws. The fallout was severe: in the 2022 Punjab Assembly elections, the BJP won just two seats, and in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, it failed to secure a single one—underscoring the deep-seated resentment among farmers. Yet, AAP’s current troubles could offer the BJP a chance to reposition itself, provided it plays its cards with uncharacteristic nuance.
State BJP president Sunil Jakhar has so far taken a cautious approach—avoiding direct confrontation with protesting farmers while subtly critiquing AAP’s governance failures. This measured stance contrasts with the party’s earlier missteps, when its leaders faced black flags and village bans during election campaigns. Jakhar’s optimism about forming a government in 2027, buoyed by the BJP’s vote share surge in 2024 (despite winning no seats), signals a long-term strategy to rebuild trust. But trust is precisely what the BJP lacks in Punjab’s agrarian heartland, where memories of tear gas shells at the Shambhu and Khanauri borders still linger.
The farmers’ issue remains the BJP’s Achilles’ heel. While the repeal of the farm laws in 2021 was a tactical retreat, the party has yet to address the underlying grievances—chief among them, a legal guarantee for MSP. The Haryana BJP government’s crackdown on Punjab farmers at border points has only reinforced the perception that the party remains tone-deaf to rural concerns. Any revival in Punjab hinges on the BJP crafting a narrative that distances its state unit from past decisions.
BJP MUST THINK OF AN ALLY
AAP’s crackdown, however, could shift voter sentiment. The party swept to power promising to champion farmers, yet its heavy-handed response has sparked accusations of betrayal. If this discontent festers, the BJP might peel off urban and semi-urban voters who backed AAP in 2022 but now feel disillusioned. The BJP has historically relied on urban Hindu votes and a now-defunct alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which dissolved over the farm laws. Now, without a strong rural ally, it must find a way to penetrate the countryside—perhaps by amplifying local issues like drug abuse or water disputes, where the AAP’s record is shaky.
Yet, the BJP’s path to revival is far from certain. Punjab’s political fabric has historically resisted its influence, with Sikh identity and agrarian pride shaping electoral trends. The Congress, despite its own struggles, remains a formidable player, benefiting from anti-incumbency against AAP and lingering goodwill from its farmer-friendly stance in 2020-21. Meanwhile, a potential realignment between SAD and farmer groups could further complicate the BJP’s ambitions.
The window for the BJP’s resurgence exists, but it’s a tight squeeze. As Punjab watches AAP stumble, the BJP’s revival will depend less on its rival’s failures and more on its own willingness to rewrite a narrative that Punjab’s voters have long rejected. For now, the odds remain steep, and the fields of Punjab are still far from turning saffron.
